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Research Articles
Anticancer medicines in development: assessment of bioactivity profiles within the National Cancer Institute anticancer screening data
1 National Cancer Institute-Frederick, Developmental Therapeutics Program, Screening Technologies Branch, Laboratory of Computational Technologies and 2 Laboratory of Computational Technologies, Science Applications International Corporation-Frederick, Inc., National Cancer Institute-Frederick, Frederick, Maryland
Requests for reprints: David G. Covell, National Cancer Institute-Frederick, Developmental Therapeutics Program, Screening Technologies Branch, Laboratory of Computational Technologies, Frederick, MD 21702. Phone: 301-846-5785; Fax: 301-846-6978. E-mail: covell{at}ncifcrf.gov
Abstract
We present an analysis of current anticancer compounds that are in phase I, II, or III clinical trials and their structural analogues that have been screened in the National Cancer Institute (NCI) anticancer screening program. Bioactivity profiles, measured across the NCI 60 cell lines, were examined for a correspondence between the type of cancer proposed for clinical testing and selective sensitivity to appropriately matched tumor subpanels in the NCI screen. These results find strongest support for using the NCI anticancer screen to select analogue compounds with selective sensitivity to the leukemia, colon, central nervous system, melanoma, and ovarian panels, but not for renal, prostate, and breast panels. These results are extended to applications of two-dimensional structural features to further refine compound selections based on tumor panel sensitivity obtained from tumor screening results. [Mol Cancer Ther 2007;6(8):2261–70]
Introduction
The process of discovering new anticancer therapies often begins with screening campaigns to identify potential leads (1). Charting the course of an effective screening campaign involves, minimally, choices about compounds (2, 3), screens (4, 5), and analysis methods (4, 6). Notable variations of this theme are continuously evolving due to the availability of larger compound libraries (7), technological improvements in assay readouts (8), and new strategies for analyzing large, high-content data sets (9–11). An often overlooked component of modern discovery efforts involves retrospective assessments of screening results for compounds currently tested in clinical trials (12). Here, we examine the preclinical screening performance of clinical trial candidates as well as their structural analogues that have also been screened in the National Cancer Institute (NCI) tumor panel. Our analysis will assess whether there is statistical support for a relationship between in vitro screening sensitivity within specific tumor types and the cancer target of each clinical trial proposed for these candidates.
Historically, the NCI Tumor Panel Screening program (referred to hereafter as the NCI-60), which began in 1990, has offered a unique readout for small-molecule and natural product extract screening against a selected set of immortalized human cancer cell lines (13–15). Conventional analyses of the NCI-60 bioactivity data have used the COMPARE program (Pearson correlation coefficients) to identify putative mechanisms of action (16) and, in some cases, lead compounds for further development (17, 18). More recent analyses of the NCI-60 data set have used alternative means to relate similarities in NCI-60 bioactivity profiles (19–22) to reveal the considerable information yet available for mining this unique data set (20, 23–27).
The strategy proposed here revisits the NCI-60 data with specific focus on the performance of clinical anticancer candidates currently in phase I, II, or III trials. The analysis consists of two sequential steps. Briefly, electronic representations are obtained for a published set of clinical candidates (the "parent" set)3 and used to collect two-dimensional structural analogues screened in the NCI-60 (the "analogue" set). The z-score normalized NCI-60 bioactivity profiles, as measured by –log(GI50), are evaluated for these compounds to assess the correspondence between the type of clinical trial proposed for these anticancer agents and appropriately matched selective subpanel sensitivity in their bioactivity profiles. Our findings support selective preferences for only a subset of candidates and their associated clinical trials. Strategies are provided for relating two-dimensional structural features of selected compounds to their NCI-60 subpanel sensitivity. The knowledge gained from this analysis may offer a "reverse engineering strategy" for selecting previously untested compounds as potential anticancer candidates.
Materials and Methods
Anticancer Medicines in Development
A recently published3 collection of 399 anticancer medicines in development (AMID) will be our parent set. Each of these compounds has recently reached phase I, II, or III anticancer trials. These AMIDs are therapeutically directed against 19 cancer classes plus designations of "solid," "other," "chemo," and "unspecified." Solid tumor types have been designated as a therapeutic modality for more than 80 of the AMIDs, whereas fewer than 10 AMIDs have stomach cancer, bladder cancer, or neuroblastoma as their cancer trial target. A majority (n = 47) of these AMIDs are directed against two cancer types whereas five AMIDs have been proposed for clinical testing against eight or more cancer types.4
The two-dimensional structural features of the
43,000 small molecules in the NCI-60 screen are queried for analogues to our AMID set (28). Summary statistics for these structural analogues are displayed as a histogram (Fig. 1
), stratified according to two-dimensional structural similarity as measured by a Tanimoto score. Similarity scores based on two-dimensional structural representations do not take into account stereoisomers. Thus, a perfect Tanimoto score of 1.0 will not necessarily indicate structurally identical compounds. A compound tested in the NCI-60 screen is referred to as an "NSC" compound. The number of structurally unique screened compounds and AMIDs in the 0.5 Tanimoto set are 4,977 and 159, respectively. These numbers progressively decrease with increasing Tanimoto similarity (28) to yield 65 NSCs with a Tanimoto score of 1.0 to 57 AMIDs. Whereas our choice of a lower Tanimoto cutoff of 0.5 is arbitrary, it is motivated in part by findings that biologically similar activities often result from compounds having relatively weak structural similarity (25, 29). Our results will thus be reported across a broad Tanimoto range to provide a relatively comprehensive assessment of weakly as well as strongly similar two-dimensional structures.
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36% (57/159 = 0.358) at the highest Tanimoto score, whereas only 1.3% (65/4,977 = 0.013) of the original NSCs are retained at this cut. This observation reflects additional biological components, beyond structural similarity, that dictate selection of lead compounds as candidate drugs for clinical trials. Alternatively, as compounds travel further down the development pipeline, they may become less likely to appear in public domain data.
Cancer Classification
Our analysis will be restricted to the nine tumor types within the NCI-60 panel that have also been designated as a cancer classification for each AMID clinical trial.5 Whereas alternative resources exist for selecting compounds entering clinical trials (Clinical Trials Knowledge Area of Prous Science Integrity, the drug discovery and development portal6), our analysis will focus on the summaries provided at http://www.phrma.org/medicines_in_development as representative of the current selection of compounds available for cancer therapy. Table 1
stratifies the number counts for compounds in the screen and, in parentheses, AMID counts for each parent-analogue set stratified by cancer classification and Tanimoto similarity scores. Here, we list the total count of compounds in the NCI-60 for each of the clinical trial designations of the parent AMIDs. For example, there are 12 AMIDs currently undergoing clinical trials in brain cancer and there are 435 compounds tested in the NCI-60 that have a Tanimoto score >0.5. These numbers decrease to 6 AMIDs having 7 NSC compounds with a perfect Tanimoto score in this cancer class. The values listed in the "Totals" row of Table 1 reflect the cumulative NSC and AMID counts for each cancer trial; thus, AMIDs tested in more than one clinical trial are counted as separate occurrences in these totals. The last row of Table 1 represents the hit rate for the cumulative totals referenced to the values obtained at a Tanimoto cutoff of 0.5. These hit rates decline gradually with increasing Tanimoto score; however, the effect is more dramatic for NSC counts, consistent with the attrition observed in Fig. 1.
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Intersection between NCI-60 Measurements and the Analogue Set
Our analysis tests for a correspondence between the NCI-60 tumor panel sensitivity of our analogue compounds and the clinical trial classification of their parent AMIDs. This analysis applies two filters to the raw data set of 4,977 bioactivity profiles. The first filter retains only NCI-60 bioactivity profiles above a threshold coefficient of variation of 8% (19). The second filter retains only bioactivity profiles with an average within-NCI-60 panel bioactivity greater than the group average GI50 activity. Both of these filters eliminate screening records where little or no differential sensitivity is observed across the NCI-60. Table 2
summarizes these parent-analogue-Tanimoto counts. Data collected using these filters result in an average attrition to
43% of the starting set of NSCs (2,097/4,877 = 0.43), while losing only
10% of the AMIDs (144/159 = 0.90). Thus, filtering based on NCI-60 screening data eliminates a large fraction of NSC compounds but still retains sufficient numbers to find Tanimoto associations that retain 90% (144) of the starting 159 AMIDs.
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43,000 GI50 measurements. Each random bioactivity profile was divided into two groups, one consisting of the GI50's within one of the nine NCI-60 panels and the other consisting of pooled measurements from the remaining eight NCI-60 panels. Each randomization step collects this differential statistic for a set of NSCs corresponding in size to those listed in Table 2 (e.g., a random set of 188 bioactivity profiles is collected for the CNS set and divided into CNS and non-CNS data sets). The within-to-between NCI-60 panel differential signal is determined for the actual test set of NSCs and for the randomized set, and a standard t-test is used to evaluate the statistical significance of this difference. These results find that only the NCI-60 lung, prostate, and renal tumors are not significantly different from random (P values of 0.064, 0.071, and 0.497, respectively). In the remaining six NCI-60 panels, their analogue NSC GI50 measurements exhibited statistically significant differential sensitivity, with the leukemia and CNS tumor panels having the best significance scores (P values of 7.58e–6 and 2.65e–8, respectively) and panels colon, melanoma, ovarian, and breast having significance scores of 6.93e–3, 1.12e–5, 5.37e–3, and 4.87e–2, respectively. The marginal significance in the lung panel (P = 0.064) and the complete lack of significance in the renal panel (P = 0.497) is consistent with the plots (Fig. 2), where the lung test set is also sensitive in the CNS and prostate panels and the renal set shows high sensitivity to the melanoma and prostate panels. The universal sensitivity of the prostate cells to all analogue sets is also evident in this image. These results support the existence of differential NCI-60 panel sensitivity within most parent-analogue sets. This result also suggests that NCI-60 panel sensitivity may provide an a priori basis for selecting candidate compounds to be tested against specific cancer classes. A unifying explanation for the failure of the renal, breast, and prostate panels to exhibit sensitivity within their proposed clinical trial target most likely represents a mixture of effects. The few number of prostate cell lines (n = 2) limits the statistical power needed to distinguish selective sensitivity within this panel. The breast lines are also known to be quite genetically varied (30, 31), and more recent evidence points to the possibility of misclassification (32). The failure of the renal panel to support within-panel selectivity does not readily suggest an explanation. Renal cancers, in general, are among the most refractory types of cancer, and more effective treatments are desperately being perused. In this instance, this might represent the apparently poor efficacy of renal-specific AMIDs.
Reverse Engineering Strategies for Data Mining
Our results support panel-selective sensitivity for some analogue NSCs associated with our parent AMIDs. This result raises the question of whether NCI-60 subpanel selectivity could be used to mine existing data for additional anticancer candidates. As a preliminary test, we filtered the bioactivity profiles for our analogue AMIDs, as described above, to yield a total of 317 NSCs (Tanimoto score >0.5), corresponding to 64 AMIDs. Progressively higher Tanimoto scores yielded 110 NSCs and 38 AMIDs (Tanimoto score >0.6), 62 NSCs and 22 AMIDs (Tanimoto score >0.7), 48 NSCs and 13 AMIDs (Tanimoto = 0.8), 20 NSCs and 8 AMIDs (Tanimoto score >0.9), and 3 NSCs and 3 AMIDs (Tanimoto = 1.0). Although these results are speculative, they support the use of a simple filter based on NCI-60 panel selectivity and a Tanimoto cutoff of 0.8 for identifying a reasonable number of hits within a set of
300 screened compounds in our analogue AMIDs.
Figure 3
displays the results of harvesting panel-selective bioactivity profiles across the
43,000 screened compounds. The number count in each NCI-60 panel is listed in the vertical label at the middle of this figure. A maximum of 4,468 NSCs are found for the leukemia panel and a minimum of 596 for the prostate panel. Approximately 40% (
18,000/43,000) of the NCI-60 bioactivity profiles have significant (P < 0.05) within-panel sensitivity, while retaining 114 of the original set of 159 AMIDs at a Tanimoto score >0.5. These compounds are inclusive of the counts listed in Table 2 and thus capture the ability to identify reasonable numbers of NSCs in our original parent-analogue pairs on the basis of subpanel selectivity alone, albeit at the expense of relatively higher NSC counts when compared with our starting analogue AMIDs.
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ipi = 24/43,000. This trivial example finds that on the basis of the reduction in samples size alone, an enrichment factor over random of 21.2 [(24/43,000)/(24/2,026)] is achieved by selecting panel-specific NSCs. Alternatively, simulation results can be used to determine the sample size needed to generate an equivalent hit rate across the complete sample space (
43,000) versus the panel-specific sample space (
2,000). These results find that a 26 times smaller sample size is sufficient to obtain an equivalent hit rate when sampling from the panel specific versus complete data set. Whereas these results might seem to be trivial, their potential effect on improving hit counts can be dramatic. These numbers scale linearly with the fewer counts for higher Tanimoto similarity while maintaining an equivalent enrichment. Thus, subpanel selectivity seems to be useful as an initial filter for compound selection. Summary counts for the intersection between these NSCs and our AMID set (Table 3
) find, remarkably, that 16 AMIDs in this set have a perfect Tanimoto score. These results provide additional support for the benefit of selecting screened compounds as candidate AMIDs based on NCI-60 panel selectivity. Also evident (Table 3) is the fact that, on average, less than 10% of panel-specific NSCs are accounted for in our AMID set. It is not possible to determine whether these additional compounds might themselves be equally effective anticancer agents.
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The analysis consists of four steps. First, a Fisher's exact test is used to determine which of the molecular descriptors [in this case defined as Daylight (33) fingerprints based on a fixed size of 2,048 bits assigned using a maximum number of 7 bonds separating atom types] exhibit a statistical difference (P < 0.05) between the sensitive and insensitive compounds. Statistically significant molecular descriptors are assigned values of 1 or –1 if the enrichment count is highest in the sensitive or insensitive compounds, respectively.
From a mask, m, defined as a vector with elements –1, 0, or 1, and the fingerprints, f, a modified Tanimoto score, Tm, is defined as;
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Molecular descriptors favoring the positive bits in the mask will receive a positive Tm, whereas molecular descriptors favoring the negative bits in the mask will receive a negative Tm. Third, at discrete intervals, Tcut, along the complete range of Tm's, the sensitive and insensitive NSCs are assigned to one of four categories: true positive, false positive, false negative, and true negative. The measure of interest is the capacity of Tm to select "true positives" from the pooled sensitive and insensitive NSCs. Two metrics commonly used to test this capacity are "recall" and "precision". Recall is defined as the proportion of sensitive NSCs that are identified by their Tm as positive [true positive / (true positive + false negative)]. Similarly, precision is defined as the proportion of insensitive NSCs that are identified by their Tm's as negative [true negative / (true negative + false positive)]. In general, a good testing procedure is characterized by high recall and precision, whereas in reality, when the recall is very high, the precision tends to be low. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC; refs. 34, 35) curve, which is a plot of recall versus 1 – precision, is commonly used as an efficient way to display the relationship between recall and precision. The preferred test yields the greatest number of true positives with the least number of false positives, resulting in a ROC curve that tends upward while moving from left to right. ROC curves for CNS, colon, breast, and melanoma are shown in Fig. 4 . These results exhibit the desired features of a valid testing procedure, with the area under the ROC curve for all nine NCI-60 panels above the threshold of 0.7 for nonrandom associations, indicated by the diagonal line.
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0.8) with panel-specific sensitivities in their bioactivity profiles that correspond to the clinical trial for AMIDs. Collectively, these results suggest that a selection strategy devoid of any prior knowledge of the parent AMID set can be obtained from NCI-60 bioactivity profiles combined with two-dimensional structural descriptors that yield families of compounds marginally similar in structure to the current set of parent AMIDs. Whether these analogue sets provide a track toward discovery of the additional AMID compounds cannot be easily determined. Virtual modeling combined with secondary testing might offer possibilities for refinements of the initial compound lists.
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The NCI-60 screening data represent a unique, publicly available, information-rich source that has the potential to be important in the process of discovering candidates for anticancer development (14, 19, 24, 31, 37). As new technologies and their associated data become available, the NCI-60 panel exists as a transitional monitor of past and current discovery efforts. In particular, recent attempts to interface the existing NCI-60 screening profiles with microarray and pathway data (20, 24, 25) seem to be useful for providing clues about the mechanism of action of a compound, and when fortunate, a development candidate for cancer therapy (22, 38, 39).
The analysis presented here examines the correspondence between the type of cancer proposed for clinical testing and the panel-selective bioactivity within the NCI-60 screen. The results find support for the NCI anticancer screen to enrich, over random, selections of analogue compounds that share bioactivity profiles within these clinical candidates. Reverse engineering data mining, based on collecting compounds with subpanel selectivity, finds a good intersection between screened compounds and candidate medicines currently in clinical trials. Mining strategies based on structural considerations derived from compounds with panel-selective sensitive versus insensitive bioactivity profiles provide an additional means for reducing the number of compounds to be tested. Selections based on subpanel selectivity can be contrasted with using potency value [mean –log(GI50)] scores across the NCI-60 panel. Based on the parent-analogue sets represented in Fig. 1, an average of 57% of these compounds at each Tanimoto cutoff would have been excluded by considering potencies above –6.0 log units (1 µmol/L). The retention jumps to 85% for potencies above –4.0 log units (1.0e–4 mol/L). Thus, it seems that mining strategies based on NCI-60 subpanel selectivity offer a better opportunity to identify this set of AMIDs when compared with potency.
Collectively, our results provide a knowledge-based mining strategy using NCI-60 tumor panel selectivity as a means to harvest novel candidate compounds. The proposed methods can provide an opportunity to reduce large compound lists into testable subpopulations for the purpose of extracting candidate anticancer medicines from the current NCI database.
Acknowledgments
We thank Drs. John Beutler, Robert Shoemaker, Susan Mertins, and John Cardellina for valuable contributions during the preparation of the manuscript.
Footnotes
Grant support: Federal funds from the National Cancer Institute, NIH, under contract no. NO1-CO-12400, and the Developmental Therapeutics Program of the National Cancer Institute Division of Cancer Treatment and Diagnosis.
The costs of publication of this article were defrayed in part by the payment of page charges. This article must therefore be hereby marked advertisement in accordance with 18 U.S.C. Section 1734 solely to indicate this fact.
4 Supplementary data for this article are available at Molecular Cancer Therapeutics Online (http://mct.aacrjournals.org/). Supplementary Figs. S1 and S2 provide histograms for the number of AMIDs in each cancer class and the number count of AMIDs in each cancer class, respectively. ![]()
5 http://www.phrma.org/medicines_in_developments ![]()
Received 3/20/07; revised 5/25/07; accepted 6/18/07.
References
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